More than two years after the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, New Strategy Center publishes a study titled „Ukraine’s Silent Enemy: War Fatigue in Ukraine.” The authors of the study are Ecaterina Dadiverina, international relations expert and Andrei Pavel, non-resident associate expert. The study was edited by George Scutaru, CEO of New Strategy Center.
The study examines the multiple challenges that Ukraine faces after more than two years of intense conflict. In this context, „war fatigue” becomes a critical factor, testing both Ukraine’s resilience on the battlefield and the ability of its Western allies to support its war effort.
The first part of the study focuses on Ukraine’s internal difficulties. Ukrainian soldiers face declining morale, insufficient aid flows, shortages in ammunition and equipment supplies, and a poor economic situation. In this context, Western support becomes essential, but also unpredictable, given the tense political climate in Western democracies, that are facing the most consequential elections in decades. The second part of the study examines the reasons and weaknesses of Western support for Ukraine, focusing on a few specific case studies. The study underscores the uncertainty surrounding the West’s ability to continue providing substantial aid to Ukraine, especially in the context of possible political change in the United States and Europe.
The objective of the study is to emphasize the need for sustained and adaptive support from the West. A Russian victory in Ukraine must be avoided at all costs, given the profound consequences it would have globally, including the weakening of the rules-based international order and increased nuclear proliferation tendencies. A frozen conflict in Ukraine would not be a long-term solution, but would only serve as a false promise of peace, encouraging Russia’s expansionist tendencies. The study underscores the importance of confronting war fatigue not as a harbinger of defeat but as a catalyst for unity and resolve, reminding leaders and voters on both sides of the Atlantic that the real battle is being fought in Ukraine.