October 2025 was marked by intensified diplomatic activity between the United States and Russia over the war in Ukraine, including the October 16 phone call between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, which focused on a “political and diplomatic solution,” though the talks were tense due to U.S. missile deliveries and Russia’s territorial demands. The planned meeting between Marco Rubio and Sergey Lavrov was postponed amid Moscow’s “maximalist” positions, and the Trump–Putin summit in Budapest was ultimately canceled. In parallel, the EU and the U.S. escalated sanctions against Russia, targeting the energy sector, banks, and trade networks, with new bans on LNG imports, transactions involving Rosneft and Gazprom Neft, and dozens of Russian oil tankers.
Kyiv intensified long-range strikes on Russian territory, while Moscow launched massive bombardments of Ukrainian infrastructure, increasingly relying on foreign recruits. At the same time, Western military and financial support grew significantly through major European defense initiatives, U.S. funding, and EU-backed credit programs.
Russia expanded its military mobilization, introducing electronic summonses and extending peacetime call-ups for reservists, while testing new defense technologies, including autonomous drones and the “Burevestnik” nuclear missile. Economic growth slowed, with Q3 GDP rising only 0.6%, industrial output stagnating, and oil and gas revenues declining year-on-year, while inflation reached 5.11% since the beginning of the year. Politically, Russia accelerated the privatization of foreign assets, terminated the plutonium agreement with the U.S., and carried out unprecedented arrests of officials involved in military corruption. Diplomatically, Moscow strengthened ties with Azerbaijan, faced Chinese export restrictions, pursued trade deals through the EAEU, and managed energy and defense cooperation with India and Syria amid the new American sanctions.
In the Western Balkans, countries bolstered their defense and security capabilities in response to regional challenges. Croatia reintroduced mandatory military service, acquired advanced anti-drone systems, and deepened its defense cooperation with Ukraine; Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo continued their political transitions, while Serbia faced U.S. sanctions and EU pressure on energy and rule-of-law issues. Industrial–military initiatives included Bulgaria’s €1 billion joint venture with Rheinmetall for artillery production and the expansion of military training in Romania, complemented by the redeployment of the U.S. 2nd Infantry Brigade from Romania as part of NATO’s strategic realignment.
Ahead of the September 28 elections, Moldova faced a coordinated disinformation campaign on TikTok and Telegram. The Constitutional Court confirmed the victory of PAS with 55 seats, while MP Marina Tauber and former local party leaders were convicted of illegal political financing. Moldova approved the 2025–2035 Military Strategy to modernize the armed forces and strengthen defense cooperation, while Transnistria implemented a temporary gas-saving regime, with supplies ensured through MET. Prime Minister Dorin Recean resigned, and PAS nominated economist Alexandru Munteanu, who will seek a confidence vote on October 31 to lead a government focused on economic recovery and structural reforms.