The study provides a strategic analysis of how innovative models of adaptive governance can be applied to enhance the security of critical maritime infrastructure. Starting from a comparison between the sophistication of resilience mechanisms in the North Sea and Romania’s potential to become a regional laboratory in the Black Sea, the paper highlights how flexible coordination structures between public and private actors can protect offshore critical infrastructure.
The analysis contextualizes the strategic role of the Neptun Deep project, which is set to make Romania the EU’s largest gas exporter starting in 2027, alongside the vulnerabilities posed by the proximity to the war in Ukraine. The paper proposes a four-layer protection architecture – physical, technological, operational, and legal/international – aligned with recursive learning cycles that enable rapid adaptation in the face of hybrid actions. The study also underscores the importance of multilateral cooperation, including with the EU, NATO, Norway, and the United Kingdom, for developing flexible and interoperable coordination models. This approach is not only applicable to the Black Sea but also offers a transferable conceptual framework for other sensitive maritime areas, such as the Baltic Sea.
Authors: Dr. Jakub Godzimirski, Research Professor, NUPI, and Sergiu Mitrescu, Program Director, New Strategy Center.