In Ukraine, the main frontline events this month were driven by Russian offensive operations and large-scale attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure. Russia carried out a series of large-scale air strikes that significantly damaged 80% of Ukraine’s thermal power plants and reduced 30% of its hydropower capacity. As a result, Ukraine could face an electricity shortfall of up to 6 Gigawatts (GW) this winter. In response, Ukraine has stepped up drone strikes targeting Russian infrastructure. To counter these moves, Russia has strengthened its defenses in key regions, including Lypti, and relocated around 40,000 troops to the Kursk area.
In terms of international aid, Germany, the UK, Denmark, the Netherlands, Sweden and the US have provided military support, including air defense systems, missile systems and artillery. In financial terms, the US, Sweden and the EU focused on assistance for energy infrastructure and humanitarian needs. President Zelensky visited the US, where he presented his “plan for victory” to US President Joe Biden and presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamila Harris.
In Russia, President Vladimir Putin has proposed changes to the country’s nuclear doctrine, suggesting that attacks by non-nuclear states that are backed by nuclear states could be treated as joint attacks on Russia, which could justify a nuclear response. Putin also reiterated his desire to resume peace talks on the conflict in Ukraine on the terms of the 2022 Istanbul accords, with possible mediation from India, China or Brazil. In the meantime, Russia plans to significantly increase its defense spending to $142 billion in 2025, up from the $111 billion previously forecast for this year.
In the Republic of Moldova, on October 20, the country will hold presidential elections and a referendum on EU accession. President Maia Sandu is currently leading the presidential race, while Russian influence is visible, notably through the increase in Russian voter registration. The fifth ministerial conference of the Moldova Partnership Platform resulted in a joint declaration by Romania, France and Germany reaffirming their support for EU integration and Moldova’s economic development. The event also saw the conclusion of nine international agreements, providing Moldova with €80 million in grants and €305.1 million in preferential loans.
Recent events in the Balkans highlight rising diplomatic tensions and shifting strategic alignments. Albania is facing challenges in its EU accession process, while Kosovo continues to face unresolved ethnic tensions despite continued EU mediation. Meanwhile, Bosnia has boosted its defense capabilities by purchasing Bayraktar drones from Turkey, while North Macedonia remains frustrated by failed EU accession negotiations, mainly due to ongoing disputes with Bulgaria.