New Strategy Center organized the conference ”The Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Former Soviet Space”, of the series of events ”War in Ukraine. Russian Aggression on the Doorstep of the Eastern Flank of NATO”. The debate was moderated by Amb. (Ret.) Gheorghe Magheru, member of the Scientific Council of the New Strategy Center, and the special guest was Mr. Alexander Iskandaryan, Director of the Caucasus Institute, from Armenia.
The debate addressed the effects of the war in Ukraine on the former Soviet space, as well as its long-term implications for security in the region. At this point, several possible developments in the war can be identified, all depending on the objectives that Russia sets on the ground, but which depend on the resources allocated and, on the other hand, on Ukraine’s resistance capacity. The discussions indicated that we can expect a long-term war as well. It was noted that Russia lost the war on information, especially after Bucha, and another significant result of the current conflict is the consolidation of Europe and solidarity at NATO level. It can also be said that Europe’s relations with the Russian Federation will never be the same again, and sanctions will continue.
Currently, the post-Soviet space has ceased to exist for some time, and what we have now is a former post Soviet space, divided into 3 geographical areas, with different evolutions and actors: the Western area, with Belarus, Ukraine, Republic of Moldova, where there is a competition between Russia and the West; Caucasus area, Where the major players are Russia, Turkey, Iran; the Central Asian area, where Russia has great influence, but where there is also a massive influence, especially economic, of China. In this latter area, the situation in Afghanistan also plays an important role, with countries in the region also facing the radical Islamic factor.