Russia’s State Duma elections reaffirmed the dominance of the United Russia party, which secured 349 of the 450 seats, while 46 participants in the war in Ukraine entered the new parliament. At the same time, Russia continued to expand its military and drone production capabilities and adapt its technologies and supply chains, including through the use of components originating from China and cooperation with North Korea. Against this backdrop, the Russian economy showed increasingly clear signs of stagnation, with lower oil and gas revenues, a widening budget deficit and high military expenditure. For 2027, spending on the military and military equipment procurement is expected to reach 17.1 trillion roubles, accounting for approximately 35% of federal expenditure.
Diplomatically, September saw intensified contacts between Washington, Moscow and Kyiv, although these did not produce a decisive breakthrough towards a peace agreement. Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner held talks in Moscow and Kyiv, while Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin maintained a direct channel of communication. Disagreements over occupied territories and security guarantees for Ukraine remained the main obstacles, while discussions increasingly focused on limited measures, including a possible cessation of attacks on energy infrastructure and the reopening of the Black Sea grain export corridor.
On the battlefield, Ukraine continued long-range strikes against energy, military and industrial infrastructure in Russia, while Russia intensified its aerial campaign against Ukraine. In a single week, Moscow launched more than 2,000 drones, 1,700 guided aerial bombs and 19 missiles, primarily targeting Ukraine’s energy, industrial and transport infrastructure. In parallel, Ukraine continued implementing reforms required for European support, completing 84 of the 95 milestones under the Ukraine Facility, although the EU accession process remained affected by Hungary’s opposition to opening new negotiating clusters.
In the Balkans, Serbia is preparing for the 25 October elections amid a challenging political context that will shape its political direction and relationship with the European Union, while Montenegro, which has already closed 18 EU negotiating chapters, faced further delays amid disputes with Croatia. Bulgaria announced plans to acquire more than 10 counter-drone systems, while in Romania, Parliament rejected the government proposed by Siegfried Mureșan on 30 September, prolonging the political crisis and uncertainty surrounding the formation of a new government.
In the Republic of Moldova, Parliament approved a 60-day state of emergency in the energy and hydrological sectors, while Chișinău fulfilled 18 of the 20 reform commitments required to access a new tranche of approximately €157 million under the EU Growth Plan. At the same time, security pressures intensified, with President Maia Sandu reporting 39 violations of Moldovan airspace since the beginning of the year, in the context of Russia’s attacks against Ukraine.