February was marked by negotiations between the United States, Ukraine, and Russia, with tensions rising over Ukraine’s exclusion from key discussions and the failed February 28 meeting between Presidents Zelensky and Trump at the White House. The Trump administration held talks with Russian officials in Saudi Arabia and Istanbul on reopening embassies and ceasefire terms without Ukraine’s involvement, sparking widespread criticism from Kyiv and its European allies. Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine would not accept agreements made without its participation. Tensions escalated further when Trump suggested Ukraine hold elections by year-end, arguing it would strengthen democracy despite the ongoing war. In response, on February 25, the Verkhovna Rada adopted a resolution stating elections should only take place after achieving a “comprehensive, just, and lasting peace.” Meanwhile, the U.S. proposed a UN resolution on Russia’s invasion, criticized for lacking direct condemnation of Moscow.
In parallel, the U.S. and Ukraine finalized a minerals agreement to support Ukraine’s economy and establish a Reconstruction Investment Fund, with Ukraine contributing 50% of its natural resource revenues. However, tense discussions between Presidents Zelensky, Trump, and Vice President Vance led to the failure of the meeting where the agreement was to be signed. At this stage, the U.S. appears closer to Russia than Ukraine, further complicating negotiations and making the final peace framework increasingly unpredictable.
On the battlefield, Ukraine has intensified deep strikes into Russian territory, targeting critical energy and military infrastructure, while Russia has escalated bombardments on Ukraine, particularly against energy facilities. Recent estimates suggest Ukraine’s reconstruction costs could reach $524 billion.
The Russian military continues to suffer significant losses, with its forces in Ukraine dwindling despite ongoing recruitment efforts. The economy is struggling with rising inflation, stagnating industrial production—except for military manufacturing—and a labor shortage. Russia hopes negotiations with the U.S. will lead to changes in sanctions policy. Recent U.S.-Russia discussions have focused on economic cooperation, exploring potential collaboration in the Arctic, including joint resource extraction and trade route development, particularly in the energy sector.
In Moldova’s breakaway Transnistria region, residents continue to face challenges despite the resumption of gas deliveries. Authorities have secured gas supplies and announced a compensation fund for heating costs, while the state of emergency remains in effect until March 10. Moldova summoned the Russian ambassador in response to recent drone incursions and closed the Kremlin-backed Science and Culture Center, reiterating its demand for Russian troop withdrawal from the region.
The political landscape in the Balkans is shifting, with Kosovo’s Democratic Party (PDK) securing 22% in recent elections, while Greece’s parliament elected Constantine Tassoulas as president, triggering protests. In Romania, President Klaus Iohannis resigned under pressure from far-right extremists, and prosecutors launched criminal proceedings against ultranationalist presidential candidate Călin Georgescu for unconstitutional activities, antisemitic and neo-fascist behavior, and illegal campaign financing.