The New Strategy Center publishes the January edition of its monthly newsletter, where we assess the most relevant information and events in or impacting the Black Sea and Balkan region.
In January, Ukraine intensified its attacks on critical infrastructure in the Russian Federation, targeting refineries, military installations, and air defense systems, launching one of the most extensive offensives since the beginning of the war. Simultaneously, Russia escalated its offensive on Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure, capturing strategic positions in the east, while North Korean troops reportedly suffered significant losses. On the international front, military support for Ukraine continued, with Norway, Canada, and Germany announcing new aid packages. Additionally, Ukraine received the first tranche of €3 billion from EU funds derived from frozen Russian assets. Following his inauguration, U.S. President Donald Trump pledged to end the conflict within 100 days, revising the sanctions regime and pressuring NATO allies to increase defense spending beyond 5%.
In Russia, authorities are intensifying mobilization efforts to compensate for battlefield losses, with over 90,000 confirmed casualties in January. Russia is strengthening its strategic partnerships with China and Iran, as President Vladimir Putin and his Iranian counterpart, Masoud Pezeshkian, signed a 20-year strategic partnership agreement, committing not to support an aggressor in case of an attack on either party. North Korea is expected to send additional troops to Russia, following an initial deployment of 11,000 soldiers. Economically, inflation has reached 9.9%, the 2024 budget deficit has climbed to $35 billion, and the National Wealth Fund has dropped to $37.5 billion—the lowest level since 2008—after $76 billion was used to cover budget deficits.
The energy crisis in Moldova worsened after Gazprom suspended gas deliveries, prompting emergency measures, including energy imports from Romania and Ukraine. The government views this as a Russian attempt to destabilize the country, while Moscow attributes responsibility to Chisinau’s policies. The European Union and OSCE reaffirming their support for Moldova’s sovereignty and energy resilience. Meanwhile, Moldova approved a new cooperation plan with NATO while maintaining its constitutional neutrality.
The Romanian government has set the new presidential election schedule, with the first round on May 4 and a runoff on May 18, following the Constitutional Court’s annulment of the 2024 elections due to Russian cyber interference. Among the announced candidates are Nicușor Dan and Crin Antonescu, with the campaign running from April 4 to May 3.
In the Balkans, Albania marks a historic moment as thousands of Albanians from the diaspora register for remote voting in the May elections. In Croatia, President Zoran Milanović was re-elected, fueling speculation about his future political ambitions. Greece is advancing energy projects with Chevron, while Kosovo faces obstacles in joining NATO and the EU. In Serbia, U.S. sanctions on the Chinese company Zijin Mining are impacting strategic industries, and President Aleksandar Vučić is considering calling early elections amid internal unrest and rising tensions with Kosovo.