The New Strategy Center publishes the March edition of its monthly newsletter, where we assess the most relevant information and events in or impacting the Black Sea and Balkan region.
On the Ukrainian front, Russian forces have intensified attacks beyond Avdiivka, launching significant strikes in towns near the front lines or further out, such as Harkiv or Odesa, resulting in evacuations, civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure. Attacks on critical energy infrastructure have been a notable feature of the war this month. While Ukraine launched long-range drone strikes on Russian oil refineries and disrupted major oil refining capacity, Russia’s retaliation came in full force, targeting key energy facilities, leaving over 1 million homes without electricity. In addition, Ukrainian forces have continued to aim to diminish Russia’s naval capability, targeting military infrastructure in Crimea and Ropucha-class landing ships.
International military support was notable, with the Czech-led initiative to buy ammunition for Ukraine raising the funds to purchase 800,000 artillery shells, with 18 countries declaring financial commitments. Amid the challenges, the use of frozen Russian assets is being considered as a strategy to support Ukraine’s defense efforts, with the European Commission having plans to potentially direct substantial funds annually to Ukraine, mainly for defense purposes.
While $60 billion in US aid to Ukraine continues to be stalled in Congress, President Joe Biden’s administration has announced a new $300 million military aid package for Ukraine to provide artillery shells and ammunition.
In Russia, the presidential election, in which Vladimir Putin secured his fifth term in office with 87.28%, was a focal point. On the economic front, Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian oil facilities led to lower production and higher fuel prices, while US sanctions disrupted Russian oil supplies to India and impacted payment systems. Container shipments between Russia and North Korea have resumed, possibly involving military deliveries, bypassing UN sanctions.
In the Republic of Moldova, in response to Russia’s destabilization efforts, a bilateral defense agreement was signed with France, covering military training and intelligence exchange. In addition, the intelligence service has warned of potential Russian campaigns to undermine European integration ahead of crucial events, including presidential elections and a referendum on EU membership.
The Balkan region faces several recurring issues, including recent and upcoming elections, territorial disputes, and the imperative for reform. In Turkiye, local elections saw the main opposition party CHP win in Istanbul and Ankara, along with other major cities, marking the biggest defeat for Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his AKP party in over two decades of power. In Albania, controversies over leadership appointments are ongoing, and political instability persists in Bulgaria following the resignation of Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov amid coalition tensions, while Croatia faces constitutional restrictions on presidential candidacy.