The New Strategy Center publishes the May edition of its monthly newsletter, where we assess the most relevant information and events in or impacting the Black Sea and Balkan region.
On May 1, Ukraine and the United States signed a historic agreement on critical minerals, creating a joint fund that grants Ukraine ownership rights and shares future revenues from licenses, while U.S. companies gain access and provide financing and technology.
On the diplomatic front, May 16 saw the first meeting between the Russian and Ukrainian negotiating teams in Istanbul. The talks yielded no significant breakthroughs, except for a prisoner exchange of 1,000 individuals on each side—the largest since the war began. During the meeting, Russia presented several demands, including Ukrainian neutrality, the renunciation of war reparations, and the acceptance of territorial losses. These conditions led to Ukrainian dissatisfaction and the impression that Russia was not genuinely interested in diplomatic progress or ending the war. A May 19 phone call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin was deemed productive, with both sides agreeing to draft a memorandum of understanding. However, tensions persisted, with Moscow demanding NATO concessions and the lifting of certain sanctions. A new round of negotiations was scheduled for June 2, again in Istanbul.
On the battlefield, Ukraine intensified drone strikes and sabotage operations deep inside Russian territory, targeting military and industrial infrastructure. In parallel, Russia launched two of the most massive air assaults since the war’s outset, heavily damaging civilian and port infrastructure. In response, Western allies significantly increased military support, including the production of long-range missiles, artillery shells, drones, air defense systems, and multi-billion-euro financial aid via EU and G7 mechanisms tied to frozen Russian assets.
Despite sustained battlefield losses and a high number of desertions, Moscow continued recruitment through incentives and expanded ammunition production. Economically, Russia is facing a labor shortage of 2.6 million workers, rising inflation, and declining trade with China, despite ongoing oil exports to India and Turkey. Diplomatically, Putin strengthened ties with China and Venezuela, received missile support from Iran, and maintained military trade with India.
In the context of regional tensions and European integration, the Republic of Moldova adopted a national EU accession plan for 2025–2029 and introduced new regulations against criminal online content, reinforcing cybersecurity and the rule of law. The government also announced a major energy shift: Energocom, a state-owned company, will replace Moldovagaz, which is controlled by Russia, by August 1. A contract signed with Romanian company OMV Petrom will enable Moldova to secure 25% of its gas needs starting in 2027, when Romania begins extracting gas from the Black Sea.
In the Balkans, Edi Rama secured a decisive election victory in Albania, although the result was marred by protests and fraud allegations. Bulgaria reaffirmed its plan to adopt the euro by 2026, rejecting a referendum proposal. Greece warned it would block Turkey’s access to EU defense funds if Ankara continues its war threats. In Kosovo, the EU eased sanctions amid a decline in violence.
Romania’s May 2025 presidential elections marked a significant political moment: Nicușor Dan won the runoff with 54.19% of the vote against far-right candidate George Simion. His moderate, pro-European platform garnered broad support, rejecting nationalist populism. The Constitutional Court validated the result, confirming Romania’s democratic path and commitment to European values.