The NATO Summit in The Hague reaffirmed the Alliance’s solidarity around Article 5 and mutual defense, as well as identifying Russia as a long-term threat. The United States succeeded in persuading its European allies for NATO to commit to increasing defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2025.
The June peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine were marked by Moscow’s rigid demands and lack of compromise. The only tangible outcome was an agreement on a prisoner exchange focused on vulnerable cases. However, Russia’s conditions—Ukrainian withdrawal, neutrality, and recognition of annexed territories—remain unacceptable to Kyiv.
In June 2025, Ukraine launched its most extensive drone and hybrid attacks to date, causing significant damage to Russian military infrastructure and exposing internal vulnerabilities. Ukraine deployed 117 drones in an operation dubbed “Spiderweb,” targeting four Russian airbases and damaging around 40 aircraft, including cruise missile-carrying bombers. In response, Russia escalated its air and ground offensives in eastern Ukraine. Domestically, Ukrainian authorities implemented wartime governance reforms aimed at attracting investment and deepening international ties, with substantial support from the EU, the UK, and other allies. These reforms included debt payment deferrals, the legalization of dual citizenship, and enhanced oversight of the defense industry.
Following the Ukrainian attacks on Russian airbases and the collapse of two bridges, President Putin accused Kyiv of terrorism and hinted at a possible halt to peace talks. Russia responded by relocating strategic bombers further into its Asian territory and intensifying its nuclear programs, including the mass production of Oreshnik missiles. Satellite imagery indicates a buildup of Russian military forces near NATO borders and the reactivation of nuclear infrastructure in Kaliningrad, Belarus, and the Arctic. Russia’s war economy is showing signs of strain due to inflation, labor shortages, and declining industrial output. Internationally, Russia’s energy projects aimed at creating a gas export hub in Turkey have been suspended, cooperation with Iran is weakening, and military partnership with North Korea is intensifying.
Moldova is facing increasing internal and external pressure ahead of the parliamentary elections scheduled for September 28, prompting authorities to tighten border controls and accelerate strategic infrastructure projects. Political tensions are rising, fueled by polarization between pro-European and pro-Russian factions. Nonetheless, Chișinău is strengthening its relations with the EU and Romania, despite external destabilization efforts. The economy remains fragile, and the situation in the separatist region of Transnistria is deteriorating. Although NATO does not currently perceive an imminent military threat, the risks of hybrid attacks and foreign interference persist.
The European Parliament has postponed the vote on North Macedonia’s EU accession due to objections from Bulgarian MEPs. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić visited Ukraine on June 11 but refused to sign a statement supporting aid for Kyiv and condemning Russia, maintaining Serbia’s stance of neutrality. Amid rising tensions between Iran and Israel, Vučić suspended ammunition exports and requested that the U.S. extend the operating license for the NIS oil company. Romania has strengthened its cooperation with NATO through the Sea Breeze naval exercise and the acquisition of 18 F-16 fighter jets from the Netherlands. A new Romanian government, led by Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan, has taken office. The pro-European coalition must implement fiscal reforms to avoid a crisis caused by an excessive budget deficit—currently 9.2% of GDP, the highest in the EU.