New Strategy Center publishes a new study entitled “Freedom of navigation in the Black Sea and the Strategic Significance of the Danube.”
It examines the strategic importance of maintaining freedom of navigation in the Black Sea in the context of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the role of the Danube, the second gateway to the Black Sea after the Bosphorus and Dardanelles. Russia’s aggressive actions manifested in the bombing of Ukraine’s Black Sea and Danube port infrastructure, as well as hybrid activities such as electronic warfare actions aimed at affecting GPS signals and ship communications, mine threats or the blockade of perimeters in the Black Sea under the pretext of naval exercises, affect the freedom of navigation on the Black Sea and the Danube, negatively affecting trade, global food security and Ukraine’s ability to resist economically.
At the same time, the study delves into the strategic significance of the Danube as a vector of connectivity with Western Europe, primarily with Germany, and the impact of its use for the economic development of Romania, Moldova and Ukraine. The Danube can play a significant role in the reconstruction process of war-affected southern Ukraine and can also contribute to NATO’s military mobility in the West-East direction.
The research concludes by highlighting the challenges that need to be taken into account in order to fully exploit the Danube’s strategic potential, taking into account, for example, navigation limitations due to the river’s flow, the level of rainfall at certain times of the year and the configuration of the Danube’s course which makes navigation more difficult in certain sectors.
The author of the study is Dr. Antonia Colibășanu, Senior Associate Expert at New Strategy Center, while the documentation support was provided by Sergiu Mitrescu, Programme Director at New Strategy Center.
This study was funded by the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung as part of a research project on the strategic relevance of the Black Sea. With the support of the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, the New Strategy Center will organise a visit to Berlin on 23-25 April, when NSC experts will present this study and another one on the Black Sea energy stakes.