New Strategy Center publishes a new study analyzing the situation in the Western Balkans, where external influences, regional dynamics, and geopolitical competition maintain a complex landscape. The study examines the role of the main actors projecting their influence in the region—the European Union, Russia, the United States, Turkey, and China—and highlights the need for a much firmer and results-oriented European approach in the enlargement process.

The paper argues that although the EU remains the only viable long-term option for the region’s stability, hesitations and imposed conditionalities risk creating a geopolitical vacuum, susceptible to being filled by disruptive forces. Without a renewed strategic commitment, the Balkans risk oscillating between relative calm and structural instability, generating challenges both for the region and for Europe’s security architecture through a contagion effect.

The author of the study is Horia Ciurtin, Expert at the New Strategy Center.

The Inconvenience of (Relative) Tranquility: An Exercise of Balance in the Balkan Powder Keg