George Scutaru, General Director of the New Strategy Center, participated on Monday, February 17, in the conference “Firewalling the Future: World in 2025 and Beyond”, organized by the University of Cambridge and the Center for Geopolitics in Cambridge.

During the panel “The Battle for the Free and Open Seas”, George Scutaru emphasized that the security of the Black Sea region depends on the outcome of the war in Ukraine and the peace process. A settlement that does not include real guarantees for Ukraine’s security will encourage Putin to restart the war in a few years, with his focus particularly on occupying Ukraine’s entire coastline along the Black Sea.

“Putin will want to continue destroying Ukraine, and this cannot happen if Ukraine retains access to the sea. The occupation of Odesa remains a major strategic objective, and if it is implemented, the Russians will threaten the existence of the Republic of Moldova and could reach the Prut River and the Danube Delta. This would be a geopolitical nightmare for NATO and especially for Romania,” stated George Scutaru.

He also highlighted that all connectivity and energy projects could be endangered by Russia’s aggressive maritime behavior. For this reason, Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey should expand the mine countermeasure mission, which has been undertaken in a trilateral cooperation format, to include the protection of critical offshore infrastructure.

Turkey has an interest in exploiting significant gas reserves in the Sakarya perimeter, while Romania will become, starting in 2027, the largest gas producer in the EU through the exploitation of the Neptun Deep perimeter. Both countries, therefore, have a vested interest in protecting their investments and energy infrastructure.

Maintaining a free and open Black Sea and preserving freedom of navigation are crucial objectives that should be on the agenda of NATO and the EU, as well as separately for individual states with strategic interests in the region, such as the United States, France, and the United Kingdom.

Participation in this conference is part of a series of actions carried out by the New Strategy Center to promote the strategic importance of the Black Sea in the current security context and the values of the Euro-Atlantic space, of which Romania is a part.

The panel was moderated by Yuliia Osmolovska from GLOBSEC Ukraine, and the other speakers included: Rear Admiral Tim Woods, UK Defense Attaché to the US; Sir Hew Strachan, Professor at the University of St Andrews, UK; Kurt Engelen, Researcher at the Royal Higher Institute for Defence, UK; Nick Chitadze, Professor at Black Sea University, Georgia; and Gevorg Melikyan, CEO & Founder of The Armenian Institute for Resilience and Statecraft.