New Strategy Center was present at the Zagreb Security Forum 2023, being represented by Major General (Retired) Paul Hurmuz, Senior Associate Expert. He attended the Panel “Russian Intelligence-important vector of Russian hybrid attacks-Lessons Identified and Lessons Learned”, with the presentation “The Russian War in Ukraine and the Impact on the Black Sea Security”.
MG (ret.) Hurmuz stressed the fact that NATO is facing a complex, volatile and unpredictable security environment in the region, which combines the armed conflict of Russia against Ukraine, frozen conflicts, aggressive Russian hybrid warfare actions, violation of the principles of freedom of navigation, attacks on civilian infrastructure and many other that put peace and security in the Black Sea at serious and imminent threat. Having significantly altered the threat landscape in the Black Sea area, the ongoing war in Ukraine has led to a new geopolitical dimension.
Energy security remains tied to Russian activities in the Black Sea, given the large gas reserves discovered and the future exploitation by Romania and Türkiye. Russia can seriously threaten the exploration or extraction of gas, given its actions in the Exclusive Economic Zones of other countries in the region, which will further complicate the security environment in the Black Sea. Also, as fighting rages on in Ukraine, the submarine cables in the Black Sea could be in danger of disruption. Deliberate Russian attacks on these cables, either through cyber operations or physical destruction, follow the Kremlin’s modus operandi of targeting critical infrastructure to gain strategic advantage.
Energy security remains tied to Russian activities in the Black Sea, given the large gas reserves discovered and the future exploitation by Romania and Türkiye. Russia can seriously threaten the exploration or extraction of gas, given its actions in the Exclusive Economic Zones of other countries in the region, which will further complicate the security environment in the Black Sea. Also, as fighting rages on in Ukraine, the submarine cables in the Black Sea could be in danger of disruption. Deliberate Russian attacks on these cables, either through cyber operations or physical destruction, follow the Kremlin’s modus operandi of targeting critical infrastructure to gain strategic advantage.
Russia’s massive missile attacks on port infrastructure linked to Ukrainian grain exports made it clear that Russia was prepared to destroy not only Ukraine’s infrastructure and storage facilities, but also any merchant vessel judged to be destined to a Ukrainian port. The Russian strikes along the Danube, in close proximity to Romanian territory, presents a real danger of accidentally hits of the NATO territory.