New Strategy Center publishes the October edition of its monthly newsletter, where we assess the most relevant information and events in or impacting the Black Sea and Balkan region.
On the Ukrainian front, Russia has attempted to advance in Avdiivka, Donetsk region, but with significant losses. Meanwhile, Ukraine has attacked both airfields and Russian ships stationed in Crimean ports, forcing Moscow to withdraw its naval capabilities to other ports. Considering the aid received by Kyiv, the ATACMS missiles showed their effectiveness on the battlefield immediately after being used.
The month was also marked by internal disputes in the US Congress. The lack of a Speaker of the House of Representatives has been an impediment, and the new speaker does not support the comprehensive $105bn package proposed by the White House, which proposes separating aid to Ukraine from that to Israel.
On humanitarian aid, the focus has been mainly on increasing energy and defence resilience ahead of winter. Meanwhile, the flow of ships carrying grain from Ukraine is increasing but still insufficient. Kyiv’s partners are proposing new Baltic and Balkan routes, but they cannot compensate for the partial blockade in the Black Sea.
In Russia, after the withdrawal of the ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, Moscow conducted a full-scale nuclear exercise. Also highlighted this month were problems for Russian soldiers on the frontline, such as shortages of ammunition and inhumane punitive measures, including executions. In the foreign affairs sphere, Russia has strengthened its military cooperation with Iran and North Korea, and Vladimir Putin has enhanced his relationship with Central Asian countries and Beijing, but provoked negative reactions from Israel following the visit of a Hamas delegation to Moscow.
In the Republic of Moldova, there are positive signals about the country’s accession to the European Union. At the same time, Chisinau distances itself from Moscow, banning propaganda websites and TV channels and denouncing agreements with the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). The relationship between Bucharest and Chisinau strengthens, particularly in the economic field, with Romania considering the purchase of the port of Giurgiulesti.
Elections in Slovakia were marked by the victory of Robert Fico, whose ruling coalition opposes military aid to Ukraine, with the Slovak leader blocking, along with Hungarian leader Viktor Orban, even an EU aid package. In Poland, despite the victory of the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party, it will not be able to win a governing majority, but the pro-European opposition parties have that ability.
In the Balkans, tensions between Serbia and Kosovo are rising, following the latter’s accusations of Belgrade’s involvement in a September armed attack in Banjska. Turkey is working with Bulgaria and Romania on an initiative to combat landmines in the Black Sea, while Sofia is seeking energy independence from Moscow.
October 2023
