The New Strategy Center publishes the October edition of its monthly newsletter, where we assess the most relevant information and events in or impacting the Black Sea and Balkan region.
Ukrainian forces continue to face significant challenges from Russian troops, who are capturing settlements in the Donbas region. Intense fighting is also reported in the Kursk region, where the presence of North Korean soldiers is suspected. Both sides are extensively using drones for strikes within Ukraine and Russia, with Russia maintaining its focus on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. In response to front-line pressures, the Ukrainian parliament has adopted a new bill to extend martial law and mobilization, with over 160,000 soldiers set to be recruited.
On the international assistance front, Western allies are reinforcing military support for Ukraine by supplying fighter jets, tanks, drones, and air defense systems, along with financial and humanitarian aid packages for winter. These efforts aim to bolster infrastructure, energy resilience, and local reconstruction projects.
In Russia, the 2025 budget emphasizes record defense spending, totaling $140 billion. Russia faces challenges related to recruitment, a labor shortage, and declining public support for the military. To address these issues, enlistment bonuses have been increased, conscription among migrants has intensified, and support for veterans’ families has been expanded. The BRICS Plus summit in Kazan granted partnership status to 13 countries, underscoring that Russia is not diplomatically isolated and highlighting its significant role, particularly in the Global South.
The Republic of Moldova has reached a critical juncture in its European integration efforts, marked by a closely contested referendum in which 50.35% of voters supported EU membership. President Maia Sandu, who won the presidential election with 42% of the vote, hailed this as a significant victory for Moldova’s European ambitions, despite ongoing interference from pro-Russian factions. Authorities in Chișinău revealed a substantial Russian-funded scheme aimed at influencing over 130,000 voters and spreading disinformation. Maia Sandu is set to face Alexandr Stoianoglo, a Russia-backed candidate, in the presidential run-off.
In October, Bulgaria held yet another election, the seventh in the last three years. The GERB party emerged victorious but faces difficulties in forming a coalition due to political instability. Meanwhile, Kosovo lifted visa requirements for Bosnian citizens, and Serbia is engaged in debates over lithium mining. The European Union continues to support integration and reforms in the Western Balkans, announcing a €6 billion funding package for the region.