In September, peace negotiations over the war in Ukraine were marked by shifting rhetoric from the United States. Donald Trump criticized Vladimir Putin, urged Europe to take the lead on security guarantees for Kyiv, called for cutting off Russia’s oil revenues, and pledged to defend Poland and the Baltic states in the event of escalation from Moscow. He also expressed confidence that Ukraine could retake its entire territory with European support. Russian officials, however, emphasized that dialogue with the U.S. continues both through public and private channels, while Moscow reaffirmed its readiness to extend the New START Treaty for one more year, contingent on reciprocal commitment from Washington.
Ukraine stepped up strikes deep inside Russian territory, crippling refineries and critical infrastructure, cutting Moscow’s refining capacity by more than 1 million barrels per day. Russia retaliated with the largest air assault of the war and by deliberately violating Polish airspace with drones launched from Belarus, triggering NATO consultations. In response, Ukraine created a dedicated branch for counter-drone defense and launched the “Defense City” initiative to boost arms production. Western support expanded, with major aid packages from the U.S., the U.K., and the EU, along with training missions and financial assistance. At the same time, Brussels tightened sanctions with a 19th package, banning imports of Russian LNG starting in 2027 and targeting the “shadow fleet” of tankers, energy companies, and crypto platforms, underscoring pressure on Moscow’s war economy.
Russia accelerated weapons integration, and defense spending dominated the 2026–2028 budget proposal, accounting for nearly 40% of total expenditures. Recruitment levels increased despite high costs, while more than 870 war veterans secured mandates in local elections. Economically, the growth of the defense industry contrasted with the decline of the civilian sector, as fuel shortages deepened under Ukrainian strikes. Internationally, Putin’s visits to China and participation in the SCO summit reinforced strategic and energy agreements, including the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, as well as new nuclear partnerships with China and Iran. Politically, Moscow conditioned any settlement on Ukraine’s withdrawal from NATO structures and the recognition of annexed regions, warning that the presence of foreign troops in Ukraine would constitute “legitimate targets.”
In the Balkans, Albania confirmed Edi Rama for a fourth term, while Greece announced a €1.6 billion tax relief package to address demographic challenges, though its economic growth forecasts were revised downward. In the Western Balkans, Kosovo’s political crisis prompted the U.S. to suspend the strategic dialogue, while Serbia staged a large military parade and is planning to sign a new gas deal with Russia, highlighting tensions and the slow progress of EU-mediated talks. Meanwhile, Romania deepened its defense cooperation with Ukraine through an EU drone program amid rising security threats.
In the Republic of Moldova, the September 28, 2025 parliamentary elections secured victory for the pro-European PAS party, which won 55 mandates, while four other parties — the Patriotic Bloc, the “Alternative” Bloc, Our Party, and the Democracy at Home Party — also entered Parliament. The vote was overshadowed by allegations of Russian interference, with reports linking Ilan Shor’s network to an $8 billion crypto project allegedly used to support Kremlin operations.