New Strategy Center publishes the study “Russia’s 2026 State Duma Elections: What to Expect,” an analysis of the parliamentary elections in the Russian Federation, scheduled to take place on September 18–20, 2026, the first elections of their kind to be held since the launch of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The study examines the structural advantages of the ruling United Russia party, the narrowing of political competition, the elimination of the main anti-war alternatives, polling trends, as well as the impact of mounting economic and social pressures generated by the war.
Beyond an electoral outcome that is largely predictable, the elections represent a test of the Kremlin’s ability to maintain political control and project an image of strong popular support. The analysis also assesses the main post-election scenarios and the risk that, following the conclusion of the elections, unpopular measures may be adopted in the military, fiscal, and social spheres.
The study was authored by Ion Cristea and Cristina Melnic, international relations experts at New Strategy Center, and edited by George Scutaru, CEO of New Strategy Center.

Russia’s 2026 State Duma Elections: What to Expect