New Strategy Center is publishing the study “The Road to Collapse: Structural Vulnerabilities and the Inevitability of Crisis in the Russian Economy”, an analysis of how the war against Ukraine is reshaping the structure of the Russian economy and deepening pre-existing vulnerabilities. Beyond the indicators that have fueled the perception of a resilient economy, capable of absorbing sanctions and sustaining a large-scale military effort, the study highlights the increasingly high costs of this model and their gradual transfer onto the civilian economy, companies, regions, and the population.
The analysis starts from a central question: to what extent can Russia continue to finance the war without the accumulated imbalances affecting its economic sustainability in the medium and long term? It examines developments in the energy sector, the depletion of financial reserves, declining investment, the high cost of credit, vulnerabilities in the banking sector, pressures on the military-industrial complex, labor shortages, and the limitations of the technological substitution process.
A distinctive element of the study is its analysis of the cumulative impact of Ukrainian attacks on energy, port, and logistics infrastructure. These attacks do not, by themselves, generate the imbalances within the Russian economy, but they amplify them and reduce the system’s ability to absorb and offset shocks.
The study does not advance the hypothesis of an immediate collapse, but rather examines the process of structural degradation that can be temporarily concealed through administrative intervention, fiscal mobilization, and political control. The central conclusion is that the regime’s resilience should not be confused with the sustainability of its economic model: as the war continues, the costs of maintaining stability increase, while the Kremlin’s economic room for maneuver steadily narrows.
The study was authored by Cristina Melnic, International Relations Expert at New Strategy Center, and edited by George Scutaru, CEO of New Strategy Center.