December 2024

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December 2024

December 2024

The New Strategy Center publishes the December edition of its monthly newsletter, where we assess the most relevant information and events in or impacting the Black Sea and Balkan region.

In December, Ukraine faced intensified military operations from Russia, with significant territorial gains in Donbas. Russia also launched one of its largest aerial offensives on December 13, using approximately 290 missiles and drones that targeted power plants in Odesa, Lviv, and Kyiv, leaving thousands without electricity. Ukraine ramped up missile and drone production, manufacturing over 1.5 million FPV drones in 2024 and putting new systems into production, such as the Palianytsia missile-drone hybrid. The European Union also increased its support for Ukraine, pledging 1.5 billion euros in monthly aid in 2025. In the energy sector, Ukraine halted Russian gas transit on January 1 and received its first U.S. LNG shipment on December 27.

In the Russian Federation, the military recorded a new loss record, with 48,670 casualties reported, marking the sixth consecutive month of rising losses. On the economic front, the Central Bank of Russia maintained its interest rate at 21%, despite persistent inflationary pressures, with food price inflation reaching 11.41% in 2024. The energy sector saw a slight rebound, with Gazprom’s exports to Europe increasing by 14%, although future declines are expected due to the cessation of gas transit through Ukraine. Politically, Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko signed a security agreement within the Russia-Belarus Union State, committing to mutual defense using “all available forces,” including Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. Putin also approved the potential deployment of the “Oreshnik” missile system in Belarus by mid-2025. Russia is also facing difficulties in trade relations with China due to the introduction of strict export controls, while continuing to receive military support from North Korea.

The Republic of Moldova continues its efforts to integrate into the European Union, securing support in Brussels for economic growth initiatives, joining the Single Euro Payments Area by the end of 2025, and cooperating in the energy sector. Moldova also adopted a 10-year defense strategy to increase military spending to 1% of GDP by 2030.

In the Balkans, the EU General Affairs Council reaffirmed its commitment to enlargement, recognizing Montenegro’s progress in preparing the accession treaty and urging other candidates, including Serbia and North Macedonia, to advance in implementing reforms. The EU-Western Balkans summit on December 18, 2024, consolidated this commitment, emphasizing strategic partnership and integration through the EU’s Growth Plan, allocating over 300 million euros for reforms. Amid these changes, Romania and Bulgaria officially joined the Schengen Area on January 1, 2025, enhancing regional mobility and cooperation within the EU.

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