In January 2026, the diplomatic dynamics surrounding the war negotiations intensified, with discussions on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos serving as a focal point. President Volodymyr Zelensky finalized the text of a security agreement with the United States and called on European leaders for stronger commitments, while meetings between the U.S. envoy and Russian officials in Moscow signaled the continued maintenance of dialogue channels with the Kremlin. This momentum continued through U.S.-mediated trilateral negotiations in Abu Dhabi involving senior officials from Russia, Ukraine, and the United States, held for the first time in this format. Although described as constructive, the talks highlighted major divergences, particularly Russia’s demand that Ukraine withdraw from the Donbas, a condition rejected by Kyiv, which insists on negotiations based on the current lines of contact. In the absence of decisive progress, the parties agreed to continue discussions on February 1, and Ukraine signaled openness to a potential direct Zelensky–Putin meeting.
On the military front, Ukraine intensified long-range drone and missile strikes against energy, military, and logistical infrastructure in Russia and in occupied territories, while Russia escalated attacks on Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure, causing power outages and heating disruptions in the middle of winter. Western support continued through military assistance and industrial cooperation, particularly from the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and the Nordic countries. Domestically, Kyiv carried out cabinet reshuffles and changes within the security structures amid mounting military pressure and the energy crisis.
According to official data, Russia ended 2025 with a budget deficit of 2.6% of GDP, against the backdrop of declining energy revenues, inflation, and a growing tax burden, which contributed to rising consumer prices at the beginning of 2026.
The Republic of Moldova is strengthening its pro-Western orientation by deepening European integration through accession to the Creative Europe Programme and by intensifying economic cooperation with Romania, its main investment partner. In the energy sector, Chișinău is diversifying its energy sources by joining the U.S.-backed Vertical Gas Corridor.
In the Balkans, January 2026 was marked by political instability and social tensions: Albania faced mass protests, while Kosovo carried out a full recount of votes. At the same time, Bulgaria adopted the euro; Albania and Bulgaria joined the “Board of Peace” initiative proposed by President Donald Trump; Serbia deepened its military cooperation with China; and Romania and Ukraine initiated the modernization of the Porubne–Siret border crossing.