June confirmed a widening operational divergence in the long-range dimension of the war. Russia maintained a strategy of mass aerial pressure, using missile and Shahed-type drone salvos to strain Ukrainian air defences and impose recurrent damage on Ukrainian infrastructure. Ukraine’s campaign pursued a different logic, concentrating on targets inside Russia’s logistical and economic depth. The strike on the Kapotnya refinery, the largest fuel supplier for the Moscow region, damaged a main processing unit and turned fuel supply into a direct vulnerability near the Russian political center.
The negotiation process remained active, but without the attributes of a structured peace track. President Volodymyr Zelensky continued to regard Washington as the only actor with sufficient leverage over Moscow, while also acknowledging that Ukraine had temporarily lost priority in U.S. diplomacy amid the Iran file. In parallel, the E3 and Ukraine used the London discussions to reinforce a stricter European position: an immediate ceasefire, talks based on the current line of contact, no legal recognition of territorial conquest and binding security guarantees. Russia, however, continued to refer to the Anchorage understandings with President Donald Trump while maintaining that full control over Donbas could be compatible with a settlement.
Russia’s domestic situation in June was marked by the Kremlin’s attempt to preserve institutional routine despite the expanding costs of the war. President Vladimir Putin set the State Duma elections for 18-20 September, while the announced participation of 17 parties was used to sustain the appearance of political pluralism. This political sequencing took place against a deteriorating economic background. Ukrainian strikes on refineries and fuel logistics contributed to export restrictions and emergency import searches.
In the Balkans, June was defined by the spillover of drone and maritime incidents onto Romania’s Black Sea flank. The Geran-2 drone that struck a residential building in Galați on 28-29 May marked the most serious Russian UAV incident recorded by Romania since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. On 5 June, a Ukrainian maritime drone, reportedly diverted by Russian electronic jamming, exploded near the Constanța oil terminal, prompting the precautionary evacuation of more than 1,300 people.
For Moldova, June linked European integration more closely to security resilience. The opening of Cluster 1 on 15 June, followed by the EU-Moldova Summit on 22 June, indicated that Chișinău’s accession process is entering a more technical and demanding phase. Yet the drone explosion near the Dniester on 7-8 June, together with the discovery of fragments in Moldovan territory led to calls by President Maia Sandu for interceptor drones and legislation enabling defence-industrial development.
During the summer, the newsletter will not be published and will resume at the beginning of October.