The New Strategy Center publishes the March edition of its monthly newsletter, where we assess the most relevant information and events in or impacting the Black Sea and Balkan region.
March was marked by a significant intensification of international diplomatic efforts, aimed at securing a ceasefire in Ukraine and shaping a sustainable framework for peace. The diplomatic crisis between Washington and Kyiv, which erupted at the beginning of the month and resulted in the suspension of U.S. support, was overcome through the ceasefire agreement signed on March 11 in Saudi Arabia. This agreement revitalized bilateral cooperation and demonstrated Ukraine’s commitment to de-escalation.During the second round of negotiations, held on March 24–25 in Riyadh, the United States secured a commitment from the involved parties to ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea, prohibit the use of commercial vessels for military purposes, and halt attacks on energy infrastructure. Additionally, Washington agreed to support the resumption of Russia’s agricultural exports. Moscow, in turn, conditioned full implementation on the lifting of certain sanctions, the restoration of SWIFT access for selected agricultural banks, and the facilitation of trade in fertilizers and agricultural goods. However, Moscow appears to be testing the waters for possible sanctions relief, showing limited genuine willingness to end hostilities.
Meanwhile, European leaders launched their own peace initiative, proposing military and political support for Ukraine through a “coalition of the willing,” underlining their aspiration for strategic autonomy from the United States. Key measures include the “Sky Shield” plan, the €800 billion “Rearm Europe” fund, the potential confiscation of frozen Russian assets, and discussions on European nuclear deterrence.
In Russia, the authorities have advocated for broader international involvement, while pursuing a negotiation strategy aimed at prolongation to gain recognition of occupied Ukrainian territories. Moscow rejected the idea of a European peacekeeping mission but expressed openness to forces from “neutral” countries, such as China. Simultaneously, Russia and the United States engaged in discussions over the possible resumption of gas deliveries through Nord Stream 2, despite opposition from Berlin. Furthermore, Moscow strengthened its strategic relations with Iran, Myanmar, and Mali, adapting to restrictions on energy exports.
The Republic of Moldova faces growing risks to electoral integrity, amid allegations of Russian interference ahead of the anticipated parliamentary elections, primarily through the network of fugitive oligarch Ilan Șor. Authorities have launched multiple investigations, including the arrest of Gagauzia Governor Evghenia Guțul and the conviction of MP Alexandr Nesterovschi. In response to the tense environment, the EU approved a €1.9 billion package for economic and democratic support, while France signed a €30 million agreement to enhance energy efficiency and reduce dependence on Russian energy.
In the Balkans, Serbia is experiencing a political crisis following protests triggered by the collapse of a facility, which led to the resignation of Prime Minister Miloš Vučević, while President Aleksandar Vučić is considering early elections. In Turkey, the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu on corruption charges sparked demonstrations. Albania, Croatia, and Kosovo signed a defense pact to strengthen regional security and support Kosovo’s Euro-Atlantic integration. In Romania, Călin Georgescu was disqualified from the presidential race by the Constitutional Court due to irregularities in his candidacy file, leaving 11 candidates in the running for the presidential elections scheduled for May 4 and 18.