On Thursday, February 19, INSCOP presented in a press conference a survey commissioned by the New Strategy Center, titled “4 Years of War in Ukraine: The Profound Impact on Public Opinion in Romania.”
35.4% of survey participants believe that, to stop the war, Ukraine should make concessions to Russia (compared to 24.5% in November 2023). 53.3% consider that Russia should withdraw and return the territories to Ukraine (compared to 64.7% in November 2023). The proportion of non-responses is 11.3% (compared to 10.8% in November 2023).
54.9% of respondents believe that Russia is to blame for starting the war (compared to 71.2% in May 2022 and 49.8% in November 2023). 14.1% point to Ukraine (compared to 4.5% in May 2022 and 8.8% in November 2023), 7.7% to the USA (compared to 10.4% in May 2022 and 14.6% in November 2023), 9% to the European Union (compared to 1.7% in May 2022 and 2.9% in November 2023), and 3.5% to others. Non-responses account for 10.8% (compared to 8.3% in May 2022 and 19.4% in November 2023).
31.5% of survey participants consider that, to resist Russian aggression, Romania should provide Ukraine with humanitarian aid, 10.5% military aid, and 12.2% financial aid. 42.6% believe Romania should provide no aid at all, while 3.3% are unsure or did not respond.
Remus Stefureac, Director of INSCOP Research, said: “The data show a shift from an initial strong consensus assigning blame for starting the war toward a gradual fragmentation of perceptions, a sign that public opinion is becoming more receptive to alternative narratives fueled by an unprecedented information war. The increase in those attributing blame to actors other than Russia indicates not only polarization but also a diversification of geopolitical interpretation frameworks among the population amid ongoing influence efforts. These developments are due to the absence over the past four years of bold strategic communication lines from the political class that would clearly and consistently project Romania’s critical interests.”
George Scutaru, CEO of New Strategy Center, added: “This research presents Romanians’ perceptions on various topics directly related to the war in Ukraine or connected to important aspects of our country’s security. The survey validates the existence of concerning societal trends, which have intensified under the pressure of internal and external events, weak institutional responses, and disinformation campaigns. The current situation is determined by several factors, such as sporadic or inconsistent communication from the political elite regarding support for Ukraine, avoidance of issues related to Romania’s defense and security despite international developments, and a lack of engagement in fostering a security culture and civic responsibility when it comes to defending Romania.
The fact that 42.6% of respondents believe Romania should not help Ukraine in any way reflects the failure of the Romanian state’s communication policy in support of Ukraine. Four years after the war began, we see that Russia, through disinformation campaigns, can influence public opinion and inhibit political decisions. If Ukraine can no longer resist, the only NATO country whose security situation will significantly deteriorate will be Romania. The collapse of the Ukrainian front would mean a direct border between Romania and the Russian Federation along the Danube and, most likely, along the Prut as well, since Russia will not hesitate to attack the Republic of Moldova. For Romanian officials, it would be easy to explain to citizens why we must help Ukraine, as it is primarily about our country’s security.
Civic culture regarding national defense is very fragile, and the results of this survey should serve as a wake-up call for policymakers. Our responsibilities as a NATO state are not fully understood, with expectations that others will defend us in case of conflict, without adopting a similar stance if another NATO country faced aggression. It is concerning that few Romanians have confidence in the country’s ability to defend against Russian aggression. The fact that many Romanians want Russian drones entering national airspace to be shot down is, in fact, a call to action directed at political and military authorities.”
The survey can be accessed HERE
