The month of March was marked by the war in Iran, whose effects have become visible in Russia’s oil exports. Moscow is the main beneficiary, as the sharp rise in oil prices has generated previously unexpected revenues for the state budget and, implicitly, for the war effort. Another consequence has been a decline in international attention—particularly from the United States—toward the war in Ukraine, as well as a significant reduction in the number of PAC-2 and PAC-3 interceptor missiles required for PATRIOT systems, the only ones effective against Russian ballistic and hypersonic missiles. In the first three days of the war in Iran, the United States, Israel, and the Gulf states used 800 missiles for PATRIOT systems—the same number Ukraine has received over four years of conflict. President Zelensky visited the Gulf states and dispatched Ukrainian experts to support their efforts in countering Iranian drones, similar to those used by Russia in the war in Ukraine. Negotiations to end the conflict in Ukraine are at an impasse, even though early March saw contacts between Russian and American envoys, as well as between Ukrainian and American representatives. Toward the end of the month, a parliamentary delegation from the State Duma visited the United States, marking the resumption of bilateral parliamentary dialogue after 12 years.
On the military front, Ukraine continued its strikes against Russian military and energy infrastructure, targeting logistical objectives, oil refineries, and defense industry facilities both on Russian territory and in the occupied areas of Crimea and Donbas. Russia maintained pressure along multiple axes of the front, while also targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure and the railway network, achieving minor, gradual advances, particularly in the regions of Donetsk, Sumy, and Kharkiv. At the same time, Ukraine launched an offensive in the south, in the Zaporizhzhia region, managing to liberate an area of approximately 400 square kilometers, aiming to demonstrate to its allies that it is capable not only of defending itself. Meanwhile, Ukraine continued to benefit from Western military support, especially from European allies, the expansion of cooperation in the defense industry, and new financial assistance packages from the IMF, the EU, and bilateral partners.
Russia is strengthening its military structures by expanding its Unmanned Systems Forces, with the objective of reaching approximately 78,800 personnel by 2026. From an economic perspective, although pressures related to the deficit, GDP decline, and budget adjustments persist, revenues have been temporarily supported by high oil prices, while economic interdependence with China continues to grow. One of the effects of the war in Iran is also the increase in China’s oil imports from Russia, which will further bring the two states closer together.
The Republic of Moldova has continued its process of distancing itself from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), while also managing new energy and environmental challenges after Russia bombed Ukrainian energy facilities on the Dniester River, located near the Moldovan border. The attack led to pollution of the Dniester and the temporary suspension of drinking water supply in northern Moldova. In March, Moldova hosted this year’s edition of the Crimea Platform, an international conference in support of Ukraine, providing a valuable opportunity for Moldova to demonstrate its solidarity with Ukraine.
In the Balkans, March brought significant political and security developments. Bulgaria is preparing for early elections scheduled for April 19, while Kosovo remains institutionally blocked following a court decision to annul the dissolution of Parliament. Regional defense cooperation advanced through joint NATO exercises and trilateral and multilateral initiatives among states in the region, including Greece, Bulgaria, Albania, Croatia, and Kosovo. Romania responded promptly and approved in Parliament the U.S. request to host air transport and aerial refueling elements at its bases for operations related to Iran. In the energy sector, Serbia has extended the waiver from U.S. sanctions applied to the NIS company.