Russia is rapidly escalating its campaign in the Black Sea in an effort to disrupt Ukraine’s grain exports. At the same time, Ukraine is striking Russian port infrastructure, vessels belonging to the shadow fleet, and oil refining facilities to reduce Russia’s export revenues and, consequently, its ability to finance the war.

The Black Sea has become an active battlefield where electronic warfare, aerial and naval drone attacks, missile strikes, and naval mines are part of the daily operational environment.

At the same time, Russia is escalating its activities against Romania and seeking to test NATO’s speed of response on the Alliance’s eastern flank. Three Russian Geran-2 drones were shot down by Romanian F-16 fighter aircraft in July, while commercial vessels were attacked by Russia in Romania’s contiguous zone. Romania is also facing extensive cyberattacks and a series of false bomb threats targeting the Port of Constanța, aimed at disrupting port operations.

These developments are documented in this brief report published by the New Strategy Center, entitled ”Russia Strongly Escalates in the Black Sea: What Could Moscow’s Next Move Be?” which highlights the rapidly evolving security environment in the Black Sea, examines Russia’s current course of action, and assesses possible developments in the months ahead.

The report is authored by George Scutaru, CEO of the New Strategy Center and former Presidential Adviser for National Security.

Russia Strongly Escalates in the Black Sea: What Could Moscow’s Next Move Be?