New Strategy Center has published a new study analyzing the escalation of Russian attacks against commercial vessels in the Black Sea, including the incident on October 14, 2026, when a commercial vessel was struck by a drone in Romania’s territorial waters, near the port of Sulina.

The study highlights the growing risks to freedom of navigation, critical infrastructure, and regional security, as well as gaps in intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities and counter-drone systems.

The authors emphasize the need for a much firmer NATO response, as Russia continues to test the Alliance’s reactions and further escalates tensions in the Black Sea. There is a growing risk that pressure on Romania will intensify amid a deterrence policy that is no longer achieving its objectives.

The study is authored by George Scutaru, Director General of New Strategy Center, and Rear Admiral (Ret.) Liviu Coman, Senior Associate Expert at New Strategy Center.

After Russia’s Latest Attacks in the Black Sea, NATO Must Change Its Approach in the Black Sea