The New Strategy Center publishes the April edition of its monthly newsletter, where we assess the most relevant information and events in or impacting the Black Sea and Balkan region.
In April, Russia continued its massive attacks on Ukraine’s critical energy infrastructure. In addition, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was hit directly, raising concerns about the safety of the site. Russian troops have been trying to advance on several fronts, with Ukrainian forces fiercely defending key positions, especially near settlements around Chasiv Yar, where concerns are growing that Russian forces will take control.
Ukraine has stepped up its defense and mobilization efforts by allocating $340 million for fortification works and adopting a draft law on mobilization, which provides for compulsory registration in military registers of men aged 18 to 60, the removal of demobilization provisions and the introduction of sanctions for avoiding recruitment.
The US Congress passed the $61 billion aid package for Ukraine, providing military assistance to Ukraine after months of negotiations and Republican opposition in the House of Representatives. Following the signing, the first aid package worth $1bn was announced and preparations for a second aid package of $6bn, which includes ammunition of several categories, including anti-tank and air defence, armoured vehicles, spare parts, aimed at increasing Ukraine’s military strength.
In Russia, politically, the arrest of Timur Ivanov, deputy defence minister, on corruption charges has sparked speculation about possible real motives, with implications for the position of defence minister Sergei Shoigu and the power dynamics within Putin’s inner circle. There has been speculation that the arrest was based on suspicions of treason. Meanwhile, Western sources have revealed that drone strikes on Russian oil refineries have significantly disrupted the Russian economy, leading to a sharp drop in diesel exports. Western sanctions have further affected Russian companies, with Chinese banks blocking payments for electronic components and similar transaction problems affecting trade with Turkey.
In the Republic of Moldova, recent events have included a kamikaze drone incident in Transnistria that targeted the radar station of a military base. In Moscow, fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor has formed the “Pobeda/Victoria” electoral group, built around Gagauz politicians in particular, indicating Moscow is beginning to prepare to prevent the re-election of pro-Western President Maia Sandu.
Recent developments in the Balkans highlight judicial challenges, preparations for elections and bilateral projects with international partners. Elections in Bulgaria have prompted reactions to the composition of interim Prime Minister Glavchev’s cabinet, in Croatia, the ruling HDZ has won a third consecutive term and is seeking to form a new majority, and Serbia is scheduling repeat elections in Belgrade. Bilaterally, Serbia rejects an extension of a mining permit for a Chinese company, while Kosovo moves closer to joining the Council of Europe despite Serbia’s opposition.