In February, diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine intensified through two rounds of trilateral negotiations between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States, held first in Abu Dhabi (4–5 February) and subsequently in Geneva (17–18 February). The discussions addressed security guarantees, territorial issues, and proposals such as the establishment of multinational peacekeeping forces and the possible creation of a demilitarized zone in certain parts of the Donetsk region. The negotiations did not yield significant results that would make a peace agreement feasible. In parallel, bilateral contacts between the United States and Russia continued in the context of the expiration of the New START Treaty, with Washington exploring the possibility of an expanded agreement that could also include China.
Ukraine intensified its long-range strikes against military, energy, and industrial targets inside Russia and regained limited territory during an offensive in the Zaporizhzhia sector, while Russia launched large-scale missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and continued its advance in the Donetsk region. Western support increased through substantial new military assistance packages and commitments made at the Ramstein meeting, alongside expanded defense cooperation. The European Union and the International Monetary Fund advanced major financial assistance plans, and international partners pledged considerable energy support to sustain Ukraine’s energy sector.
Russia expanded defense production and financing to sustain large-scale weapons deliveries, while estimates suggest that actual military spending significantly exceeds officially reported levels. The Kremlin also tightened domestic control over communications and began preparations for the 2026 electoral cycle, which is expected to feature a high number of war veterans among the candidates. Economically, declining energy revenues and record regional deficits indicate mounting pressure in Russia, even as oil exports have largely been redirected to China. At the same time, Moscow and Tehran agreed on the supply of air defense systems to Iran under a deal estimated at €500 million.
The Republic of Moldova is simultaneously managing political tensions related to the Transnistrian region, economic challenges, and pressures in the energy and security domains, while also strengthening international partnerships. Recent developments include the resumption of dialogue with the Tiraspol authorities, improvements to energy infrastructure, the countering of a Russia-backed security threat, and increased support from the United States, Denmark, and Norway.
The Balkans are facing a combination of political tensions, energy security challenges, and efforts at regional cooperation. Several countries in the region are set to sign a declaration with the United States aimed at reducing dependence on Russian gas; Albania has seen protests linked to corruption allegations, Bulgaria continues to experience political instability, and Serbia has announced the dismantling of an alleged plot against the president.