On May 14, Turkey goes to the polls for presidential and parliamentary elections in one of the most unpredictable electoral races in the history of the country. In this context, the New Strategy Center publishes a brief analysis of the elections, assessing the main camps and the two main contenders for the post of president, while presenting potential post-election scenarios.

Incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has ruled Turkey for 20 years, during which he has reversed his country’s predictable, pro-Western trajectory by adopting an ambiguous and more unpredictable foreign policy. For the first time, he faces a real electoral test, the opposition candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, being seen as the front-runner. While Erdogan relies on an entire system he has built over the past 20 years, Kilicdaroglu is counting on a six-party coalition and, above all, public dissatisfaction with Erdogan’s economic policies. A success on the part of the opposition led by Kilicdaroglu could have serious implications not only for Turkey, but also for the entire Black Sea, Middle East and Central Asia region, with reverberations at the level of Ankara’s relations with NATO and the EU.